11.21.2009

NBD - Week 11 Previews & Predictions

The two trade-deadline deals went through this morning, though I've got no idea how the Joseph Addai-Chester Taylor deal failed to get vetoed into oblivion. Addai hasn't gotten a lot of publicity, but he's a very productive fantasy back, having not missed double-figures since Week 2. Chester Taylor, according to Haller and Elliott, is a valuable keeper option due to the fact that he's becoming a free agent at the end of the season. In fact, Haller described him as "the top free agent running back in 2010." Well, Chester will be 31 for most of the 2010 season, and here are some of the other free agent running backs next year: Ronnie Brown, Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, Leon Washington, Jerious Norwood, Ricky Williams, Willie Parker. Did I mention that Chester is averaging 2.7 yards per carry this year? Nice pick-up, Haller. I just wish that when you decided to toss out quality players you'd have given me a call. "Valuable keepers" such as Lance Moore or Mario Manningham could have been yours.
Anyways, here are previews and predictions:

The Death Panel (6-4) vs. Mental Errors (6-4)
Already this game sucks due to Ricky Williams' 32-point outburst on Thursday night. Once Elliott swings his new flex-back into the line-up, I'm probably toast. Most of my match-ups aren't terribly favorable, giving me little hope that I'll manage to come back from this early deficit. I should be psyched about Drew Brees against Tampa Bay, but for the past month Drew has been spotting shitty teams an early lead by throwing interceptions and he'll probably do the same this week. Damn your sense of fairness, Drew! My best hope is probably Andre Johnson against Tennessee, but even they have been much-improved lately, so this seems pretty clearly a Mental Errors win.

Sexy Cheeseburger (5-5) vs. Wild Stallions (6-4)
It's amazing to think that with a win here, Derek's awful, awful team would be right in the playoff hunt. And they'll have help getting there thanks to new acquisition Vincent Jackson, who I assume will get plugged into the starting line-up once Derek awakens. To snag a win for his new team, all Vince will need from his teammates is for Beanie Wells and LaDainian Tomlinson to replicate the success they had last week, rather than the lousiness they've shown all season. He'll also need DeYoung not to capitalize on his match-ups, which are about as good as you could ask for: Larry Fitz vs. the Rams; Mike Sims-Walker vs. the Bills; Pierre Thomas vs. the Bucs; Rashard Mendenhall vs. the Chiefs. Advantage: Stallions.

Who Gonna Check Me Boo? (7-3) vs. Deuceburger (2-8)
NBD's best team takes on its worst, in a game that has already been characterized by its Thursday night results: Manning's running back (Jonathan Stewart) scored four points, Colly's kicker (Dan Carpenter) scored six. Colly's all-world backs are taking on Houston and Buffalo, two of the worst run defenses in the league. They alone should beat the Deuceburger. It's Who Gonna Check Me in a romp.

Goin' Rogue Y'all (3-7) vs. Woody's Warriors (5-5)
Woody is on a three-game win streak, and is facing a team that has only three wins and very publicly declared himself to be ignoring the present and building for the future (however misguidedly) this week. So why wouldn't Woody win? Well, for starters, he's almost definitely without his workhorse, Michael Turner, and has absolutely nothing on the bench to replace that kind of production. Haller has Phil Rivers going against a Denver defense that has been putrid of late (85 points allowed in their last three games) and Calvin Johnson may finally have a chance to get on track against the lowly Browns. Yes, the fantasy gods are a fickle bunch of bastards, and as much as they should be punishing Haller for his bone-headed moves, I think that this week they reward Goin' Rogue with a win.

Burke City Giants (7-3) vs. Vag Secretion Parfait (3-7)
You know, the last time I went off criticizing a trade, it was the one that brought Steve Smith 1.0 to Burke City. Since then, Smith has been fighting to prove me wrong, and continued to this Thursday with 15 points. That's a good start for a team which is otherwise taking on some tough defenses, and in fact this whole game will be an interesting case study of a good team with poor match-ups taking on a bad team with good match-ups. I will do what I always do in these situations: predict a good game and a close outcome, but ultimately a victory for the good team: Burke City.

Harry Lance Hannibal (6-4) vs. Matt Ryan Loves Dogs (4-6)
I keep waiting for HLH to fall out of the playoff picture, and they keep on hanging around. A win this week, in fact would spring them past at least me or Elliott (probably me) and potentially DeYoung as well. The chances of that happening will depend somewhat on whether or not MRLD's Cedric Benson can make the field this week. Steven Jackson has started his annual second-half kick-ass-fest, and combined with Benson that would be a 1-2 punch that would be hard to beat. But even if Benson plays, I suspect he'll be limited, and the rest of Koehler's roster is nothing special. We'll call this one for Harry.

Last week: 3-3
Overall: 34-20

Good luck to everyone this week except for Elliott. Seriously: Fuck you, Elliott.

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