NBD - Week 13 Review C & Power Rankings 2.2

The Playoffs kick off with a bang this week, with intriguing cross-familial match-ups as Toobin the Elder takes on Sovic the Younger and Sovic the Elder takes on Toobin the Younger. Colly and DeYoung would seem to be in positions of advantage, having Byes for the first round, but are they really the favorites here? To find out, I decided to create some Playoff Power Rankings.

Methodology:
First, I took the top quarterback, three running backs, three receivers, and tight end from each team and averaged their scores from the past six weeks. I summed these averages to come up with each team's expected offensive outcome (kickers and defenses are too big a crapshoot to consider, in my opinion). Next, I looked at the opponentss for each player for the next three weeks, assigning each opponent a + (if they were ranked in the bottom third in terms of points allowed to that position), a 0 (if they were in the middle third), or a - (if they were in the top third). For the teams with byes, I only used their opponents for weeks 15 and 16. This produced a schedule factor. I then combined the Expected Offensive Output (EOO) with the Schedule Factor (SF), as well as my own subjective knowledge of trends and feelings about these players going forward, to create these rankings. Enjoy.

6) Harry Lance Hannibal (R Tarasovic)
EOO: 85, SF: +6
This is to be expected. Ray's team basically backed into the playoffs on the strength of a strong start and several unimpressive wins. The EEOs were very close for all but this and Colly's team, with Ray falling almost 15 points short of the average. The only thing he's got going for him is that strength of schedule, which is the biggest outlier in the group. Still, giving Donnie Avery a good match-up doesn't change the fact that he's Donnie Avery.

5) Mental Errors (E Toobin)
EOO: 98, SF: -4
I exchanged some text messages with Elliott Thursday evening, and to be honest I'll be surprised if he even comprehends the results of this weekend's games. The guy is struggling. He was hating himself for having picked up the Browns' RB this afternoon and then forgetting to start him. Thing is, the Browns RB he had picked up was the wrong one anyway. On top of that, he has the second-lowest EEO and is tied for the worst schedule. And that SF is actually lower than it appears, because it's buoyed by a bunch of pluses in Week 16, which Elliott will likely never see.

4) Wild Stallions (J DeYoung)
EOO: 102, SF: -4
DeYoung's team has some great talent, and I don't hope to imply with this ranking that they don't deserve the Bye. They were the second-best regular season team. But DeYoung will come out of his Bye to the toughest week of his season, with negative match-ups for Aaron Rodgers, Percy Harvin, and all of his running backs. Speaking of those backs: Rashard Mendenhall and the Steelers have fallen off a cliff, and Pierre Thomas is still inexplicably losing carries to Mike Bell. Bad timing for the Stallions.

Unfortunately, those first three teams are all on one side of the bracket, so one of them's making it to the final. But I expect they'll lose to one of these three:

3) Burke City Giants (M Toobin)
EOO: 102, SF: 0
As disappointing as he may have been this season, the loss of Steve Slaton does hurt this team. With him out, Michael will be filling the flex role with either Justin Fargas or Robert Meachem. Now, Meachem's been super-hot lately, so maybe that's not a problem, but he strikes me as the type of guy who could score 40 points one week and 0 the next, which is not ideal for the playoffs. Still, if Brandon Jacobs is back on track - as his Week 13 outing indicated - this team could wreck some shop.

2) The Death Panel (Sovic)
EOO: 99, SF: 0
What? You think I'm crazy to rank myself second? You think I'll look like a fool when I lose in the first round? That a team relying on Matt Forte and Laurence Maroney can't possibly go anywhere in the playoffs? This is confidence, bitches! I'm a house on fire!

1) Who Gonna Check Me Boo? (J Colly)
EOO: 111, SF: -4
I'm confident, but I'm not stupid. Barring the Titans' team plane crashing headfirst into the Jaguars' team plane, Colly's taking this thing.

Now that I've laid out exactly what's going to happen in the playoffs, here's the last of the regular season game re-caps:

Wild Stallions (108) defeat Who Gonna Check Me Boo? (102)
Hm. I just got through talking about how Colly's squad is an unstoppable juggernaut, but I forgot that I'd immediately have to write about this game, which they lost. Not that they put up a bad week, with Alex Smith (21), Miles Austin (16) and Roddy White (16) all producing well. But that normally dynamic backfield of MJD and CJ was pretty ho-hum this week (22 combined), and the Stallions, needing to step up to guarantee themselves a bye, brought it. Aaron Rodgers (24) is like the nice, soft blanket that DeYoung brought to Kiddie Country 2 until he was like 14, providing safety, security, and 20-something points every week. Larry Fitz (20), similarly, hasn't given us a lot of insane days this season, but has been consistently good. Rashard Mendenhall and Percy Harvin (16 each) rounded out the victory for the Stallions, and thanks to getting themselves a bye, one more like this will put them in the NBDBowl.

Mental Errors (87) defeat Harry Lance Hannibal (65)
Fuck. I just remembered that I was gonna do this whole dramatic thing about how dramatic Monday Night was, that until DeYoung managed a victory, Elliott held the Bye week, and that even once DeYoung had passed Colly there was only a slight difference in point totals between the two, meaning that the Bye week hinged on a play or two. But I forgot to do that in DeYoung's game write-up, so now I'm left just to note that Elliott ended the season three points shy of a Bye, though he ought to be happy to have gotten a win at all with 87 measly points. Fortunately, he was taking on playoff lightweight HLH, who managed only Vince Young (18) and Antonio Bryant (12) into double figures amongst offensive players. Elliott similarly only had a few guys do well, but they did well better, scoring 22 (Joseph Addai) and 20 (Tom Brady). I swear if Elliott ends up winning this thing because of Joseph fucking Addai, I'm going to punch Matt Haller in the face.