12.29.2010

NBD - Season in Review Pt. 3

Justin~Matt Ryan Loves Dogs (5-8 / 1,160 / 8th Place)
The Draft in Hindsight
One of last season's biggest and most pleasant surprises was the (re-?)emergence of Cedric Benson as a quality fantasy running back playing for the Bengals. Koehler capitalized on that last season, and hoped to again by keeping him as a fourth-rounder along with Joe Flacco (11th) at QB. Rather than counting on Benson to provide RB depth, however, Koehler elected to use both of his first two draft picks on more backs. His first pick, given his Falcons fandom, was an easy one: Michael "The Centaur" Turner. In the second round, he swung for the fences with Ryan Mathews, the much-touted rookie who looked to be taking over the San Diego starting job and whom every fantasy expert had ranked within their top 15 backs. Mathews turned out to be a swing and miss, but his spot in the RB triad was filled by 9th-round selection Darren McFadden, who ended up scoring more total points than Turner or Benson, though he did it in a very hit-or-miss fashion. At wide receiver, however, he would not prove to be as lucky. In the 3rd round, Koehler took Dwayne Bowe, who would emerge as a top option later in the season, but did not produce early enough to be a reliable WR1 on a team with weak WR2s and 3s: Donald Driver (5th), Jacoby Jones (6th), Jerricho Cotchery (10th), and rookie-keeper Johnny Knox (15th). Roy Williams (14th) did have a three-week run of brilliance, but with all historical data pointing towards him sucking, Justin had him benched for two of those three weeks.

Key Transactions
As befits an owner who would announce his retirement at the end of the season, no one made fewer waiver wire moves or spent less of his free agent auction budget than MRLD owner Justin Koehler. There is literally nothing interesting to report about his transactions this season, so I will do what I always do when I don't know what else to write.

Tits

Crucial Victories and Crushing Defeats
Other than the Buck Stops Here, who lost every game after Week 3, no NBD team had a longer loss streak than Matt Ryan Loves Dogs' four-game schneid between Weeks 7 and 10. So with his defection from the league only a few weeks away, it must have been sweet relief for Koehler to finally notch a win in Week 11, gaining a 107 - 80 victory over the Buck-Stoppers. Not only did that represent a season high for the Dog-Lovers, but it was achieved on the shoulders of a number of players dear to Koehler's heart. 2009 holdover and fantsy Comeback Player of the Year for that season Cedric Benson combined with homer favorite Michael Turner to provide 37 points. Early-season disappointment Dwayne Bowe showed why he may have been worth his third-round selection with a 23-point outing. And Koehler's draft-day gamble, taking Ben Roethlisberger despite his four-game suspension, paid off in a big way with Roethlisberger rocking a season-high 35 points.
The most frustrating loss of the season, though, came a mere week later, as MRLD followed up their highest score of the season with their second-highest, only to be overcome by an outstanding day from the Burke City Giants, losing 105 - 113. Bowe (35) was once again a stud, and Turner was his reliable self (13). But Roethlisberger (12) posted barely a third of the previous week's explosion and Benson (4) had a quiet day. Still, with Garrett Hartley and the Minnesota Defense combining for 23 points, Koehler posted a score that would have beat more than half of the other teams in the league. Unfortunately, he found himself up against the BC Giants and their dominant trio of RBs (Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis, totaling 61 points), leading to a crushing loss in the penultimate game of his NBD career.

The Playoff Run
I actually just described two of MRLD's "playoff run" games in the previous section, so all that's left are the details of Koehler's goodbye victory in Week 13. That week, Justin looked on with a wistful sense of pride and bittersweet joy as his team turned in a remarkably balanced effort. No single player scored more than franchise favorite Cedric Benson's 18, but with Roethlisberger and Donald Driver turning in 13 each, Turner and the Minny D grabbing 15 each, Darren McFadden going for 17, and even Garrett Hartley chipping in 10, nearly every MRLD starter made some meaningful contribution to the 102 - 84 victory over McClusterfuck. Only Dwayne Bowe (0), clearly overcome with emotion at saying goodbye to the owner who had shown so much faith in him, failed to show up.

What the Future Holds
Allow me to take this opportunity to welcome the Native Burke Dwellers' newest owner and heir to Koehler's franchise: Andy Screen. I know from being in a fantasy basketball league with Screen that he will be an almost frighteningly obsessive owner, and I anticipate he will have surpassed Koehler's 2011 tally of eight transactions by the time we get to Week 2 of next year. We can all also expect frequent (and frequently confusing) commentary from Mr. Screen, which is always nice. Koehler's relative inactivity on the waiver wire will mean that Screen won't have much in the way of 15th-round sleeper-keepers to choose from, but surprise breakout Darren McFadden (9th) seems a clear candidate for keepery, and though he was basically a bust this season, Ryan Mathews (2nd) could still lay claim to the San Diego starting job, and is keepable in that early round due to his rookie status. Other than those two, Ben Roethlisberger (8th) seems the most keepable asset, though it remains to be seen if Screen will look to "clean up" the franchise by ejecting some of its questionable character guys. The Commissioner's office will be working together with Sr. Pantallon throughout the off-season to ensure a smooth transition.

Kevin~Finga Sniffs (6-7 / 1,224 points / 7th Place)
The Draft in Hindsight
Manning has not always been our most conscientious owner, but with the top pick in this year's draft and a determination to atone for past ownership sins, Kex cames into the season eager to change his reputation. He was among the first to pay his dues and announce his keepers, which turned out to be the quarterback tandem of Matt Schaub (5th) and Brett Favre (11th). Favre's failures and frustrations this season have obviously been well-documented, but as a 5th-round choice, Schaub - currently 8th among quarterbacks - may represent the bigger disappointment. Based on last season's performance, Manning probably expected to have two elite QBs on his roster, giving him a great bye-week fill-in and some solid trade fodder afterwards. Instead, he was left with one decent QB1, and one player who probably should have been benched in favor of Joe Webb some time ago. 
Anyways, filling out the rest of his roster, Kex made some pretty conventional choices in the first three rounds. Chris Johnson was the top overall selection, and while he hasn't quite blown the league away like he did last year, he's certainly been strong. Greg Jennings (2nd) and Marques Colston (3rd) became Manning's top two receivers, and while both had their struggles early in the season, recently they've proven themselves to be the fantasy ball-catchers we expected them to be. Round 4 brought the Finga Sniffs the opportunity to shore up their running game behind Chris Johnson. Who did Manning take? Jerome Harrison. Now, I can't remember the exact circumstances surrounding Harrison at that time. I think he had just been traded from the Browns to the Eagles. And maybe LeSean McCoy had a questionable injury at the time or something. And since the Eagles were going to be breaking in a new quarterback (Kevin Kolb), it did seem like they'd probably be leaning on the run game a little bit. But I just can't imagine a situation in which Jerome Harrison is a smart selection in the 4th round there. Harrison has scored a total of 34 fantasy points this season. Here are some of the running backs selected after him in our draft this year: Ahmad Bradshaw, Thomas Jones, Donald Brown, Brandon Jacobs, LaDainian Tomlinson, Marion Barber, Fred Jackson. All of those guys have had significantly more productive seasons than Harrison, and were bigger names coming into the draft. This is a "yikes" pick, and when Manning followed it up two rounds later with Clinton Portis, he left himself in a position to be scrambling at running back all season long. 

Key Transactions
Manning was a ball of fire this season when it came to the waiver wire, finishing second only to Colly in the number of transactions made on the season. Not only was he aflame, but it would appear that the free agent money was burning a hole in his pocket: by September 22nd, it was all gone. That money was divided between only three players: Brandon Jackson ($51, 9/15), Jermaine Gresham ($25, 9/16), and Demaryius Thomas ($24, 9/22). Not one of those investments would pan out, but oddly enough, two free pick-ups turned into solid Finga Sniffers. Before Michael Vick's explosion, it was looking like Peyton Hillis (acquired 9/5) might be the best free agent pick-up of all time, finishing third among RBs and surpassing even Manning's #1 overall selection, Chris Johnson. Not quite as impactful but still quite useful was Ryan Torain (10/2), who took over for the Skins when Clinton Portis went down and proved far more effective. The run of valuable pick-ups made for nothing did not end there, however: In one day (10/21), without any budget to speak of, Manning managed to acquire Danny Woodhead, Stevie Johnson, and Jacob Tamme, all of whom would provide significant fantasy impact over the next few weeks. Those early-season over-payments might have doomed a less active owner, but Manning showed this year that by being active and taking chances, a committed owner can build a solid team on a shoestring budget as the season progresses.

Crucial Victories and Crushing Defeats
Heading into Week 11, on the doorstep of the fantasy playoff run, there were four middle-of-the-pack teams tied at 5-5, and it was likely that only two of them would make the playoffs. Two of those teams were Manning's Finga Sniffs and Colly's Sex with a Pharaoh, who were squaring off that week. Not only did the Finga Sniffs deliver a swift and decisive defeat, but they also earned Classic Soul Jam High Scorer of the Week honors for that week. (Note: I mis-reported this in a recent e-mail, where I declared Haller the high scorer for that week. In fact, Manning out-scored him by 20 points.) This victory, combined with a loss by the McClusterfuck (also among the 5-5 teams) would put Kex in the driver's seat towards determining his own fate as far as making the playoffs.
...And then came Week 12, where Manning faced off against the other team in that mix, Papkin's Missing 3 Jacksons. The Finga Sniffs came to play, posting 111 points off of a Herculean effort by Peyton Hillis (37) to try and drive his team into the playoffs. Unfortunately, Papkin's players were just as motivated, and though no one equaled Hillis' monstrous day, the work of Kyle Orton (26), Fred Jackson (22), Brandon Lloyd (20), and Mike Tolbert (18) was enough to just barely edge the Sniffers, 116 - 111. That loss put Manning right back into precarious playoff position, needing a win in Week 13 as well as losses by others to guarantee a slot in the post-season.

The Playoff Run
Week 13 brought Kex's last chance to sneak into the tournament, but that opportunity came against an equally motivated Sir Lucious Left Fut team fighting to claim the regular season championship title. Having exhausted themselves in Weeks 11 and 12, the Finga Sniffs weren't quite able to generate the offensive onslaught of the previous games. Greg Jennings (24) and Marques Colston (13) made one last valiant effort to push their team over the top, but most of the other Sniffers came up well short of expectations. With Left Futters Aaron Rodgers (28) and Reggie Wayne (26) putting up big numbers, Manning's fate was sealed.

What the Future Holds
It's hard to imagine anyone having a better keeper value next year than Manning being able to keep Peyton Hillis in the 15th round. He didn't even have to spend any free agent money this year to get him. Incredible. I don't know what's going to happen with the Redskins, but Ryan Torain as a last-round value might be a steal as well. Or Steve Johnson. It just goes to show: even if waiver wire diligence doesn't necessarily equal success within the season, it can always lead to big possibilities for the season to follow.    

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