10.02.2012

BaDoBuKiBro - Week 4 Review

As you may recall from my post-draft post, I'm tracking the performance of all of our auctioned players this season based on Points Per Dollar. Though I'm not ready to publish the individual rankings yet, I did take some time this week, with roughly a third of the fantasy regular season under our belts, to calculate positional rankings. The formula is simple: total number of points contributed by drafted players at a position divided by total number of dollars spent on that position. A couple things to keep in mind:

1) This includes only players purchased during our auctioned draft, not ones that have since been acquired in the Free Agent Auction.

2) This includes only points that were actually contributed as part of the starting line-up, so even if you drafted, say Marques Colston, his 25.8 points this week didn't count towards your WR PPD if you started Lance Moore instead, you stupid fucking idiot.

Anyways, here are the rankings/results:

WR
Bev         3.94
Souts 3.54
Bost         2.81
JDC         2.38
Dekker 2.37
Bardey 2.34
Hambone 2.07
Jong         2.05
Wilson 1.77
Cody 1.72
Casano 1.29
Sovic 1.19


TE
Casano 14.90
Bost         7.40
Bev         5.23
Hambone 4.76
Souts 4.73
Wilson 3.92
JDC         2.33
Cody 2.15
Bardey 1.47
Dekker 1.41
Jong         0.87
Sovic 0.73


RB
Souts 2.44
Hambone 1.81
Bardey 1.73
Cody 1.64
Bost         1.52
Sovic 1.49
Casano 1.43
Wilson 1.29
Dekker 1.10
JDC         1.10
Jong         1.03
Bev         0.56



QB
Jong         31.25
Bev         17.6
Wilson 8.66
Dekker 8.12
Casano 4.75
Sovic 3.25
JDC         2.66
Bardey 2.10
Bost         1.43
Hambone 1.32
Cody 1.05
Souts 0.84


K
Bardey 47.00
Wilson 41.00
Casano 32.00
Souts 31.00
Bost         30.00
JDC         27.00
Dekker 25.00
Hambone 21.00
Cody 18.00
Sovic 17.50
Bev         7.00
Jong         5.00



Def
JDC         65.00
Bardey 40.00
Dekker 36.00
Bost         35.00
Casano 26.00
Hambone 14.00
Souts 12.33
Jong         12.00
Cody 11.50
Wilson 10.00
Bev         9.00
Sovic 3.00


Basically, the kicker and defense ratings just answer the questions Did you spend a dollar on your kicker/defense? and Have you used the same kicker/defense for all four weeks? Those rankings are pretty insignificant, right?

...and yet....
My hope in doing this was to identify which positional values would yield the most success. I would love to be able to draw some correlation between winning and Souts' outlying value at Running Back, or Jong's huge PPD number at Quarterback, or Bev's presence among the top three at Wide Receiver, Tight End, and Quarterback. But those three guys? They're in the bottom half of our league rankings. The guys who are on top of the league right now are Dekker (4 wins, 2nd in scoring); Wilson (3 wins, 1st in scoring); and Bardey (3 wins, 3rd in scoring). The common thread: Bardey and Wilson are first and second in Kicker PPD, and Bardey and Dekker are second and third in Defense PPD. Could it be that with all of us reading the same pre-season rankings and fantasy insiders, that we're essentially fielding the same offensive team, with only the "extra" positions providing differentiation? Or that the key to fantasy success is finding value at the supposedly value-less positions? I leave it to you geniuses to figure it out. I'll probably just stick to writing these weekly reviews. And with that, I give you Week 4:

Fire Al Groh (136) over Colonel Red Beard (97)
It isn't so much that the Redbeards didn't know what hit them this week, it was that they didn't know where the hits were coming from. The Firemen were attacking on all sides in all ways, with a nearly perfect distribution of offensive plays that kept Bev's hapless Falcons defense (4) guessing - and guessing wrongly - all game long. Michael Vick (19) overcome his problems of coughing the ball up to the other team and kept it moving to his own receivers, spreading it around to Torrey Smith (19), Rob Gronkowski (17) and Larry Fitzgerald (16). With the Colonel's army struggling to rein in the passing game, the gaps were open for Bardey's 1-2 punch of Trent Richardson (18) and Alfred Morris (17). Trying to play catch-up, Philip Rivers (14) and Victor Cruz (21) managed to do some damage, but LeSean McCoy's (16) roll ended up being minimized, and the other receivers couldn't really get anything going. With drive after drive stalling out in the red zone, Matt Bryant (14) got a lot of work, but that's never the equation for success against a high-powered offense.

Tumblin' Dice (126) over Quarterback Camp (119)
Sometimes too much talent on a roster can be a bad thing. With so much attention paid to the ongoing quarterback controversy and the money spent on the offensive side of the ball, there is reportedly a growing schism developing in the Campers' locker room. That can only be exacerbated by this week's result, where the 49ers defense (24) actually led the team in scoring, only to see their highly-paid counterparts unable to keep up with the Tumblin' Dice. To be fair, the Dice had a huge week, with Robert Griffin III (23) continuing to impress in his rookie season, taking advantage of the explosiveness of fellow youngster AJ Green (21) and reliability of the experienced Jason Witten (24). Not to be outdone by the Niners, the Texans D (23) did some scoring of their own, ensuring the Dice their third straight win and the title of highest-scoring team in the league.

Team Pinhead (126) over HollyBoneWoodJerMajestyD'Brichashaw (121) 
The Pinhead "training" staff is famous for the way they take care of their players, but when owner Brian Bost got a little too aggressive during kicker Nate Kaeding's pre-game rub-and-tug, it led to the team taking the field without their kicker and his injured groin. Somehow, though, the knowledge that there would be no field goals or punts this day led to success for the Pinheads. Continually going for it on fourth down, Drew Brees (30) made many a drive-saving pass to favored receiver Roddy White (33) and left HollyBone's Packers defense (2) gasping for breath. Though Tom Brady (32) showed classic form, he could never quite do in three downs what Brees was doing in four. Marshawn Lynch (24) had a strong day on the ground, but lacked the inspiration of a Pinhead team playing for their fallen doofus.

Dobis (P)PR (109) over Joe's Fightin' Blue Hens (103) 
Joltin' Joe (23) finally made his triumphant return to his namesake's starting line-up this week, but he was apparently so excited about flexing the old arm muscles and airing it out to Dwayne Bowe (20) that he forgot about the rest of his offense, none of whom could manage double figures. Matching the character of their own quarterback (Eli Manning, 18) and owner (Sovic, 32), Dobis took a much more even-keeled approach. Pounding it on the ground with Stevan Ridley (23) and Cedric Benson (13), the PR squad only needed average contributions from Brandon Lloyd (13) and Lance Moore (10) to stay ahead. Jesse's Bears defense (23) made a late push, but it wasn't enough to win the Battle of B1E.

Pterodactyl Attack (101) over Big Blue (98)
In a week of tight games (five of six match-ups were decided by 10 points or less), this one was the tightest. The Pterodactyls looked strong in the early going, with Arian Foster (16) providing nearly exactly the 100 yards and touchdown I credited him with last week. With the Big Blue defense (2) focused on keeping Julio Jones (4) at bay, Matt Ryan (25) was able to connect with Eric Decker (17) and Mike Williams (14). Across the field, aging wonders Michael Turner (25) and Peyton Manning (25) did a lot to silence their nay-sayers, and Vincent Jackson (19) has clearly developed a strong rapport with Manning. But late attempts to get Martellus Bennet (1) and Jeremy Maclin (1) involved in the game fizzled out, and Big Blue was left just short of their third victory, giving a fourth straight to the undefeated 'Dactyls.

Dagobah System Silent Partner (94) over It's So Cold in the D (90)
Smarting over his undressing in last week's Reviews, Cody came into this match-up with something to prove. But there was only one team in the league he could prove it against, and that was the equally inept It's So Cold in the D. The Dagobahan most in need of redemption was probably quarterback Aaron Rodgers (28), who finally produced the kind of game Cody expected when he paid $67 for him a month ago. Rodgers found success by leaning on Jordy Nelson (19) and Dez Bryant (17). To do so, the Dagobahans were forced to ignore the running game, but luckily that wasn't much of a factor against a So Cold squad whose only bright spots were Brandon Marshall (23) and rookie kicker sensation Greg Zuerlein (18). Jong and Bill's team may not be scaring anybody at this point, but Zuerlein must have the rest of the league's doofs quaking in their boots.

That does it for Week 4. If any of you guys can make any sense of all that PPD analysis I did and the thousands of hours of data entry that went into it in the Comments, I'd love to see it.

2 comments:

Benjamin Dekker said...

Seems like Sovic's magic formula punishes you for paying top dollar for stud players ... I'd rather have Arian Foster for 70 and an average of 19.2 a week than say Cedric Benson who gets 10 a week and went for something like 18 bucks in the draft. Maybe measuring how much better a guy is than the average starter? Then again I'm not running any numbers so I won't continue to criticize ...

Commandant Lassard said...

Dekker, your criticism is perfectly valid and welcome, and your point is the exact reason that I calculated PPD by position rather than individually. Because obviously we'd all rather have an Arian Foster than a Cedric Benson, but really what you end up with on your roster is an Arian Foster AND a Cedric Benson AND a Donald Brown, etc. And there's a finite amount of money to spend on those guys on the draft, so my presumption was that getting value on guys, especially guys like the Bensons of the league, would result in success. But as the numbers show, maybe you're right. Maybe all that really matters is hitching yourself to a superstar, whose PPD will almost always end up lower than a mid-teir guy who was a third of the cost. If that's the conclusion we come to, though, then next year should see us bidding those guys up even higher than we did this year. It'll be interesting to see what the point of diminishing returns is on those top investments. If $70 wasn't too much for Foster this year, how much is too much?