8.21.2012

Everybody Sucks

There are worries and headaches associated with every fantasy player out there, even the supposed best of them. Read on and discover why you might as well just scratch them all off your cheat sheets and let me worry about them.



Robert Griffin III is a rookie playing behind a questionable and injured offensive line.

Jay Cutler does not give two shits about the game of football, and likely hates you and your fantasy team. 

Nate Washington surpassed 700 receiving yards for the first time last year, his seventh in the league.

Shane Vereen is the second cousin of famed dancer and choreographer Ben Vereen, who you may remember as Mayor Ben from Zoobilee Zoo.

Kenny Britt is getting arrested as you read this, no matter when you are reading this.

David Wilson is currently third on the Giants' RB depth chart.

Michael Crabtree scored over three times as many touchdowns in his two-year collegiate career as he has in three years as a pro.

Jason Witten's spleen just exploded.

Donald Brown is in his fourth consecutive season as a sleeper. Yup, this one's probably it.

Anquan Boldin has averaged over 20 receiving yards less per game since moving from Arizona to Baltimore.

Toby Gerhart is probably a good pick if it's important for you to have a decent RB2 for the first few weeks of the season.

Lance Moore has started seven games in the past three seasons.

Mark Ingram is third on the RB depth chart of a team that threw the ball on 61% of their offensive plays last year.

Aaron Hernandez is being drafted purely out of confusion with the other New England tight end.

Matt Schaub plays in a run-first offense with aging receiving talent and now faces the threat of John Beck on the bench.

Santonio Holmes is one of the worst "top" receivers in football and hasn't had more than 750 receiving yards in a season with the Jets.

Malcom Floyd has missed nine games the past two seasons and has the middle name Mauii.

Peyton Hillis probably infuriated you if you drafted him last year; has had exactly one season with more than 600 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns.

Denarius Moore is not Demaryius Thomas, if that's what you were thinking.

Kevin Smith had a nice run early in his career with Clerks, Chasing Amy, and Mallrats, but since has seen his career arc from directing/producing movies to writing comic books and creating podcasts, which is not, you know, a positive direction for your arc.

Torrey Smith has a pretty good story on his Wikipedia page about why he holds a grudge against UVA. Hard to blame him.

Ben Roethlisberger is a rapist. Remember that whole thing? When he raped a girl? In a bathroom?

Doug Martin is being hugely sleeper-hyped as the next Ray Rice, seemingly on the basis that his coach once coached Ray Rice in college. Go ahead and pay through the nose for him based on that.

Pierre Garcon did not exceed 40 receiving yards in half of his games last season.

CJ Spiller has had two years to overtake Fred Jackson in Buffalo and still hasn't done it.

Michael Bush was signed by the Bears just in case Matt Forte didn't sign a long-term deal. Matt Forte has since signed a long-term deal.

Robert Meachem is being treated as a #1 receiver in San Diego. He averaged 40 yards and .4 touchdowns per game last year in New Orleans' record-setting passing offense.

Matt Ryan has been described as "on the cusp" of fantasy greatness for three straight seasons now. Also, his nickname is based off an awful beer that used to give me terrible headaches.

Isaac Redman's fantasy value came from the fact that the guy ahead of him was going to be out for the first six weeks of the season. That guy (Rashard Mendenhall) was just activated off the PUP list.

DeSean Jackson has a record label called Jaccpot records. Jackson is spelled with a 'k.' Jackpot is spelled with a 'k.' So...

Jermichael Finley is routinely described as an incredible athlete. If your fantasy league gives points for high jump, shot put, or 110m high hurdles, draft him. If less than 800 yards receiving and eight touchdowns sounds good, you should also draft him.

Eric Decker had exactly one game last season where he had more than 65 receiving yards.

Ben Tate is a really great guy to get so long as you've spent $75 on Arian Foster first.

Antonio Brown rocketed up the fantasy rankings as Mike Wallace held out of camp and it seemed that Brown would emerge as Pittsburgh's top option. All indications are that Wallace will report within the next week.

Beanie Wells is, as far as I can tell, the same Beanie Wells we've been watching for the past three years. I'm pretty sure he's still playing in Arizona, as well.

Philip Rivers sounds like a great guy to draft until you realize that Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Matthew Stafford are clearly better, and RGIII, Michael Vick, and Matt Ryan all have bigger upside. But otherwise, yeah, having the 9th or 10th best QB is good stuff.

Demaryius Thomas has, by his own admission, "never really ran routes much" as a receiver. Well, that should go over well with Peyton Manning.

Shonn Greene had two very good games, in the playoffs (once fantasy season was over), in 2009. It's true. 

Vernon Davis had two very good games, in the playoffs (once fantasy season was over), in 2011. It's true. 

Steve Johnson is a member of a hip-hop collective known as the Certified Flyguyz. "Money motivated and willing to give an all out hustle is how you become a flyguy or flygurl!"

Jeremy Maclin was so sick during last year's pre- season that he was suspected of having cancer. Cancer! Turns out he just had an inflammatory virus. So, I guess what I'm saying is, Jeremy Maclin is the kind of pussy who confuses a virus for cancer.

Stevan Ridley ran for only 441 yards and one touchdown last year, but to be fair, he was backing up future Hall of Famer BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He is currently injured with what the Patriots call a "leg issue," the Boston Globe calls a "hamstring issue," and the Boston Herald calls a "knee issue." So, you know, it's down there somewhere.

Dwayne Bowe has at least two unnecessary letters in his name, and arguably as many as four. He plays in the high-powered Chiefs offense.

Antonio Gates has missed nine games in the past two seasons, and he is older than me. I have missed every game of the past two seasons.

Percy Harvin was recently diagnosed with a "brain cloud." It's a black fog of tissue running right down the center of your brain. It's very rare. It will spread at a regular rate. It's very destructive.

Jonathan Stewart is a player who I welcome you to draft. Welcome to the J-Stew Crew. Enjoy.

Vincent Jackson caught for 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns last season in a San Diego offense that threw for 4,400 yards and 27 touchdowns. This year he moves to a Tampa Bay offense that threw for 3,650 yards and 17 touchdowns last year. It's possible that Jackson makes the Bucs offense much better. Or it's possible that the Bucs offense makes Jackson much worse.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis is in a remarkably similar situation to Vincent Jackson. How much worse than the Patriots could the Bengals be?

Reggie Bush had a great year last year, gaining almost 1,400 yards from scrimmage. In the three years prior, he had averaged only 642 yards from scrimmage. But last year's Reggie, in the sixth year of his professional career, was probably the real Reggie.

Roy Helu is one of four Redskins running backs who appear to be exactly equivalent, so just take the Redskins' amazing, high-powered offense and divide that by four. 

Peyton Manning last played in an actual professional football game that counted on January 8, 2011, the day that US Representative Gabrielle Giffords and 18 other Americans were shot. Remember that story? Yeah, me neither, although I do think there was recently an episode of "The Newsroom" about it. That was a while ago.

Miles Austin's hamstring is made of Play-Doh(tm) that has been mixed with multiple other colors of Play-Doh(tm), left outside in extreme heat, then rained on, then returned to its little plastic container. (Note: dried out Play-Doh can actually be revived fairly easily by flattening it out, holding it over a pot of steaming water, kneading, and repeating that process a few times. The more you know!)

Brandon Lloyd averaged 215 yards a season between 2006 and 2009, half of which time was spent with the Redskins. Fuck you, Brandon Lloyd.

Marques Colston has started 65 of a possible 96 games during his career, and his teeth are made of wool. 

Tony Romo is just so handsome, it'd be hard to blame you if you drafted him based purely on handsomeness.

Willis McGahee helped me to my first fantasy championship back in 2006. Also in 2006: "Bad Day" by Daniel Powter was the top-selling song of the year. 

Ahmad Bradshaw was once sentenced to two years probation for stealing a PlayStation.

Darren Sproles is named as the point of comparison for every back-up, under-sized running back in the league with any talent, as in "The [terrible team] are hoping to use [mediocre, smaller running back] in a sort of Darren Sproles-lite role this year." It is starting to get on my nerves.

Dez Bryant has a totally fascinating bio that sounds like one of my students' lives, if one of my students had enough talent to be a professional football player. I totally wouldn't blame you for drafting him, just like I totally wouldn't blame Dez for being out of football, playing cee-lo in a back alley for crack money in a year and a half.

Steve Smith's actual first name is Stevonne, which cracks me up to no end. His receiving total from 2010 to 2011 went up 840 yards, and his touchdown total rose by five. Do you trust him to maintain last year's figures as he enters the 12th year of his career, or is it more likely he continues the downward trend started the year before?

Jordy Nelson is the only guy besides this guy to ever be named "Jordy."

Frank Gore's coaches and management are so confident in him that this year they spent a 2nd- round draft pick to replace him and signed an aging veteran to take over his goal-line carries.

Michael Turner has been way too good to me over the years to ever say something bad about him, but his nay-sayers would have you believe that he's over the hill and that Jaquizz Rodgers is ready to take over. 

Trent Richardson recently had his knee scoped and plays for the Browns, who are also starting a rookie at quarterback. But if you want to pay RB1 money for him, be my guest. 

Brandon Marshall has scored double-digit touchdowns just once in his career, despite being supposedly a "big red-zone target." Most recently, he played for the Miami Dolphins, who thought enough of him that they traded him away for two 3rd-round picks.

Fred Jackson is 31 years old, recovering from a broken fibula, and fighting off a 1st round draft pick who averaged 5.2 yards per attempt last year. Otherwise, he looks solid.

Julio Jones is super-awesome and I can't wait to get him on all of my rosters in 2012. Note that I felt the same way about LeGarrette Blount in 2011, Shonn Greene in 2010, and Jerricho Cotchery in 2009.

Michael Vick was a bit of a disappointment last year, due to the fact that he notched only one rushing touchdown. This was surprising because during his nine-year career, he has scored one rushing touchdown three times, two rushing touchdowns twice, and three rushing touchdowns once.

Steven Jackson is another guy I have a hard time speaking ill of, due to the fact that he's won me multiple championships and he once dressed like Eric Dickerson for a game on Halloween weekend. Suffice it to say, he's getting pretty old (29), and long ago surpassed Dickerson and Marshall Faulk for most carries and yards by a Ram.

Ryan Mathews has missed six games in his first two seasons, and recently broke his collarbone. Also, have you seen his haircut? Seems like a total douche.

Victor Cruz had a great season last year as an unexpected threat behind Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks. There are questions as to whether he can replicate that success this year as a primary focus of both his own offense and opposing teams' defense, but I mean... salsa dancing! Am I right?!?

Darren McFadden was the inspiration for Samuel L. Jackson's character in the M. Night Shyamalan classic "Unbreakable."

Eli Manning has proven himself to be a solid option at quarterback, a clutch performer under pressure, and a surprisingly engaging entertainer (see: SNL). And yet, I just can't get over that underbite. The guy signed a contract a few years back for 97.5 million dollars! Is that really a problem that surgery can't solve? Can we get Dr. Ryan Reeves, DDS on this, please?

AJ Green had 1,110 all-purpose yards and seven touchdowns in his rookie season last year. You know who had very similar numbers in his rookie season? Eddie Royal, in 2008. He never surpassed 700 yards or four touchdowns again.

Hakeem Nicks has spent the entire pre-season thus far on the Physically Unable to Perform list for a broken bone in his foot. Luckily, feet are unimportant for wide receivers.

Adrian Peterson suffered a torn ACL in Week 17 last season. Over the past eight years, running backs who suffered significant knee injuries have averaged a 53% reduction in production in the years that they returned from their surgeries, and most of them were not doing so with such a short turnaround.

Cam Newton set a new record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback last season, and if you pay for Cam, you're paying for those rushing TDs. The quarterback Newton surpassed for that record was Steve Grogan, who had 12 rushing TDs in 1976. It took Grogan six seasons to accumulate 12 more rushing TDs. Kordell Stewart had 11 in 1997, and it took him his next three seasons to accumulate 11 more.

Jimmy Graham is 6'7", giving him a significant height advantage over most NFL defenders, leading to his amazing 2012 season. Two of the tallest linebackers in the NFL are Mathias Kiwanuka of the Giants and DeMarcus Ware of the Cowboys. The Saints play the Giants and Cowboys this year, in Weeks 14 and 16 - the first round of the playoffs and the fantasy superbowl. 

Jamaal Charles tore his ACL last season, just like Adrian Peterson. He will also be contending for touches with Peyton Hillis.

Wes Welker is famously a stud in PPR leagues due to his high number of receptions, but a relatively low yards per reception means that he needs all those receptions to be productive. With Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and Brandon Lloyd all on the field, is there any guarantee that those looks will come Welker's way in 2012?

Mike Wallace has still not reported to Steelers camp. Assuming he does, he will presumably be out of synch with his teammates and be subject to the ire of his coaches and management, who have clearly decided that Antonio Brown is their higher priority at wide receiver.

DeMarco Murray, if you take away the game in which he ran for 253 yards, averaged 43 rushing yards per game last year. He scored two touchdowns.

Matt Forte gets a lot of yardage and receptions and such, but he scored only three rushing touchdowns last year. This year, the Bears brought in Michael Bush to augment their backfield. Bush has scored 15 rushing touchdowns in the past two seasons, 12 of which were from inside the 5-yard line. If Forte doesn't hit home runs, he won't be crossing the plate.

Greg Jennings saw decreases in his yards per reception and yards per game from 2010 to 2011, and every passing year adds another year of experience to the young receiving talent on his team - Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley et al - whereas for Jennings, it just adds age.

Roddy White won two state high school wrestling championships by creating his own move which he called "the Shanaz." I realize that does not dissuade anyone from bidding on him, I just thought it was a good story.

Rob Gronkowski had pretty much the best season ever by a tight end last year. If you think he's likely to replicate that, by all means, spend $40 on a tight end. 

Matthew Stafford missed 19 games in his first two seasons in the NFL. Do you trust him to make it through another season healthy?

Marshawn Lynch was recently arrested on DUI charges, and could be suspended by the league at any time (it would not be his first suspension). For further insight into Lynch's character, I recommend reading this story.

Andre Johnson is coasting on the fumes of past fantasy success. He's missed 12 games in two seasons, and he's never been the same since his hamstrings went missing during a weekend bender south of the border back in 2010.

Larry Fitzgerald's team, the Arizona Cardinals, did not hire a new quarterback during the off-season.

Chris Johnson really made his fantasy name (and CJ2K nickname) back in 2009. From that season to last season, his yards per attempt dropped by 1.6, yards per game dropped by 60, and total touchdowns dropped by 12.

Drew Brees has dealt with a lot of stress in his professional career: being jettisoned by a Chargers team for whom he'd averaged a quarterback rating of 85; arriving in New Orleans and being viewed as a franchise savior; carrying that team to its first Super Bowl championship; serving as the face of the players in last summer's labor dispute; and now losing his play-calling head coach and the defensive leadership of his team to the Bountygate scandal. I love the guy, but at some point he's just going to snap, right? Is this the year we see Brees pull a snub-nose out of his socks and shoot up the field like Billy Blanks in The Last Boy Scout? 

Calvin Johnson makes it pretty much impossible to find anything negative to say about him, so, um... Madden Curse!

Tom Brady's career is historically similar in "quality and shape" to those of Boomer Esiason, Roger Staubach, Kurt Warner, and Bert Jones, according to Pro Football Reference. But did you realize that Brady is entering his 13th season? In Esiason's 13th season, he threw for less than 2,300 yards; and Staubach, Warner and Jones threw for 0 combined yards in their 13th seasons!

Maurice Jones-Drew has not actually reported to the Jaguars yet. That could be a problem.

Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 117 times in the past three years. Compare that to peers like Tom Brady (73), Drew Brees (69), and Peyton Manning (40). At some point, Green Bay's porous offensive line is going to cost Rodgers some pain and some games, and since it hasn't happened yet, the odds are going up and up every season.

LeSean McCoy's touchdown tally more than doubled in 2011 from the previous season, while Michael Vick's rushing touchdown total went way down. If those numbers normalize, you're looking at a guy who rushes for 70ish yards and scores about half a touchdown a game. That hardly seems like top-5 talent, and yet you'd be paying top-5 dollars for it.

Ray Rice has the mustache of a 12-year old.

Arian Foster actually regressed last year in terms of yards per carry and yards per game. He also demonstrated himself to be somewhat fragile, missing three games and allowing the Texans to see that there wasn't much drop-off between him and backup Ben Tate. Foster also went from making $525,000 a year last year to making $18 million in 2012. That can be a lot of pressure to live up to, or it could mean that Foster can sit back and relax now that he's made his fortune.

So, basically, everybody sucks. My advice: Take a conservative approach on auction day and focus on your deep, deep sleepers.

3 comments:

Ray T said...

Is TJ Duckett still on the board

Matt Haller said...

Ken Simonton never actually existed in fantasy or the nfl, but Sovic will still spend $20 on him

Commandant Lassard said...

a small price to pay for loyalty