Elliott~Sir Lucious Left Fut (10-3 / 1,189 pts / 1st Place Regular Season / 2nd Place Overall)
The Draft in Hindsight
Looking back over Elliott's 2009 roster, it's hard to remember how he managed a Third Place finish that season. Were Tom Brady, Reggie Wayne, Ricky Williams, and Steve Smith 2.0 really that good? Or was Elliott just lucky? Either way, Williams and Smith were at least values relative to their draft position/waiver wire cost, and they got the call to come back for 2010 (in the 10th and 15th rounds, respectively). That left E's team without a true RB1 or WR1 coming into the draft, so naturally in the first round he took... a QB. Aaron Rodgers was the 9th overall pick, the first quarterback off the board in our draft, and ended up as the third-highest overall scorer in fantasy (just a point behind Michael Vick). So certainly that selection paid off. Sir Lucious followed that up with the equally unassailable decision to return to the Reggie Wayne well. The third round is where things got tricky, as E realized there were no decent RBs still on the board. With Ricky Williams already under contract, he decided to gamble that, one way or another, the Dolphins running game was going to produce points, and took Ronnie Brown. Did that work out? Well, by season's end, Brown and Williams had scored a combined 218 points, equivalent to the production of one Rashard Mendenhall. Now obviously no one has the goal of needing two players to produce the value of one, but keeping in mind that that was the strategy Elliott was employing here, the results were not so bad. Of course, he also could have used his third round selection on Arian Foster, who went one pick later, and not had to worry about any of this. But that's easy to say in hindsight, I guess. Anyways: neither Dolphin ended up being Elliott's top rusher, as Thomas Jones (6th) remained stubbornly in front of Jamaal Charles on the Chiefs' depth chart. And who needs running backs anyway when you've got Antonio Gates (4th) destroying the league for the first half of the season before being slowed (again) by injury.
Key Transactions
Considering that Elliott won the regular season and finished second in the playoffs despite an iffy draft, you'd expect that he made some kind of blockbuster pick-up during the season. But looking over this transaction log, I'm not seeing anything particularly mind-blowing. The biggest part of Chico Dusty's inheritance money was spent acquiring Deion Branch (10/20, $40) after his return to the Patriots. Certainly, Branch's reunion with Tom Brady resulted in his best season since the last time he was catching balls from Tom Terrific, but he only had three double-digit weeks as a Left-Futter, so it's not like he made a huge contribution. Adding Sam Bradford (10/23, $10) was a nice move, especially in consideration of future keeping, but with Rodgers on the roster, Bradford was only ever going to see playing time on bye weeks or in the case of an occasional concussion. So... yeah. There's not a lot to see here. Ultimately what we have here is a team with decent talent that didn't actually score a lot of points but managed to keep winning games. You can call it luck, or you can call it quality management. I call it fantasy.
Crucial Victories and Crushing Defeats
As noted, this team did not score a lot of points. In fact, despite having the best record (10-3) of any NBD team, they were actual sixth overall in terms of points scored, and averaged about three and a half more points per game than the 1-12 Buck Stops Here. Naturally, that entails some low-scoring wins, and since that is kind of the story of Elliott's season, I'm going to give the Crucial Victory tab to SLLF's lowest-scoring win: a 77 - 69 defensive slugfest in Week 8. Of course, it's not just the paltry point total that makes this a crucial victory, but the fact that it came at the expense of Haller's Emailarrhea, ensuring that Elliott finished the season atop the league (Haller finished one game back at 9-4). The Left-Futters' top scorer was Antonio Gates (18), with only two other players (Lance Moore and Ricky Williams, 11 each) in double figures. Aaron Rodgers (7) had his worst outing of the year to that point, and as far as I know it was the worst of his career. None of that is pretty, but that suits the 2010 Sir Lucious Left Fut, who repeatedly built something out of nothing.
As far as Crushing Defeats, I've mostly been sticking to regular season games, but it seems silly not to acknowledge that for Elliott and Matt, obviously the biggest game of the year was the Biggest Game of the Year, the NBDBowl. I'll go into the details of that game in the Emailarrhea write-up below.
The Playoff Run
After two straight losses in Weeks 9 and 10, Sir Lucious Left Fut used Week 11 to get themselves back on the winning track that would lead them to a regular season championship and beyond. Up against the Warriors of Woody, whose Maurice Jones-Drew notched an impressive 25 points, Sir Lucious put up a team-wide effort led by Aaron Rodgers (30). Thomas Jones (19) and Reggie Wayne (17) were also fired up by the shellacking they received the previous weeks at the hands of Papkin, and took their frustrations out on the Warriors. With the rest of the team putting up respectable numbers, SLLF rolled to an easy victory, 114 - 93.
Week 12 wasn't nearly as impressive for the Left Futters, but it hardly needed to be as they were taking on This Team Here is Dead, who confirmed their name by putting up one of the uglier performances in recent NBD memory. Rodgers (27) and Deion Branch (23) alone would have beaten this collection of losers, who could only manage 44 total points thanks to 0-fers by Michael Bush and Malcom Floyd and negative-three by the Detroit Defense. Why anyone would play the Detroit Defense against New England is a mystery to me. This reeks so badly of collusion, it's a wonder that Elliott didn't send me an e-mail complaining about it. Anyways, in comparison to Derek's paltry output, E's 81 points look positively staggering.
Week 13 brought Elliott the possibility of sewing up $150 of regular season championship money, and like any good Jew, he did not let the chance of getting his hands on some cash pass him by. Greg Jennings (24) and the rest of the Finga Sniffs made a decent effort at keeping the Left-Futters from the title, but Rodgers (28) and Wayne (26) would not be denied. With Branch (12) and TJ (11) also pitching in, Sir Lucious kept their loss total at three, guaranteeing them the regular season title and, perhaps just as importantly, a first round playoff bye.
While most teams return from a bye week rested and refreshed, SLLF team leader Aaron Rodgers came into the second round of the playoffs with a concussion, forcing rookie Sam Bradford into service. Unaccustomed to the spotlight and pressures of the post-season, Bradford looked like a rookie out there, tallying only five points. Naturally, his inexperience had deleterious effects on the receivers as well, with Wayne and Branch combining for a mere seven points. The running backs (TJ - 14, Ronnie Brown - 10) were a little more help, but the man who really saved the day and won the game for Sir Lucious was Vincent Jackson, who exploded for 29 points after virtually an entire season of rest. In the irony of all ironies, this explosion came at the expense of Papkin's Missing 3 Jacksons squad, who had attempted to trade for V-Jax's services earlier in the season, only to see the trade thwarted by league vote.
When I was big into comic books as a kid, I used to read these "What If?" comics that re-imagined the Marvel Universe if some pivotal moment had gone differently. Some day, I will go back and write a "What If?" post about what would have happened if this trade had gone through, but in this (fantasy) reality, what happened is: Elliott made it to the NBDBowl on Vincent Jackson's back.
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| Um... They'd have a parade, I guess? |
What the Future Holds
Assuming that Antonio Gates regains his health, it would be hard to justify not keeping him in the 4th round next year. Through eight weeks of this season, he had scored 120 points. That's about the same scoring rate as Eli Manning or Jay Cutler, and it's coming from your tight end spot. That's fucking awesome. Joining Mr. Gates next season could be Vincent Jackson (5th), who would presumably provide more than one game of value like he did this season, or Thomas Jones (6th) if he keeps clinging to playing time. Did the Chiefs fire Todd Haley? That could be bad news for TJ. Then of course there is Sam Bradford (15th) who was picked up off the waiver wire and is arguably a starting fantasy QB next year. As a rookie, he could be a third keeper, although I kind of feel like the original intent of that rule was for the player to have been drafted, not waiver wired. Looking back at last year, though, I see that we allowed Papkin to keep Pierre Garcon (a free agent) with his rookie slot and I did the same with Bernard Scott, so I guess the rookie rule extends to pick-ups. Sometimes rules change because we have a ton of discussion and a big vote. Sometimes they change because I forget some shit and nobody notices or cares. I much prefer the latter.
Matt~Emailarrhea (9-4 / 1,304 pts / 2nd Place Reg Season / 1st Place Overall)
The Draft in Hindsight
2010 got off to a good start for Emailarrhea thanks to some wise choices in 2009. LeSean McCoy (5th), Mike Wallace (14th) and Jermichael Finley (15th) were all projected to break out (or continue their breakouts from the previous season) in 2010, and none of them disappointed, though an injury did cut short Finley's coming-out party. Relying on Wallace's potential as a top receiver, Haller used three of his first four picks backing up Shady at the running back spot. Though Ray Rice (1st) may not have quite lived up to his draft spot, he certainly wasn't a huge disappointment as the 11th-best running back this season. And with Matt Forte (3rd) returning to form and Joseph Addai (4th) maintaining his usual adequacy, the Emailers found themselves with great depth at the position, enabling the trade that would complete the championship core (see below). With the selection he didn't use on rushers, Haller took Roddy White (2nd), who was merely the third-best receiver in fantasy this season. Matt rounded out the starters with Eli Manning (6th) and immediately backed him up with Matt Ryan (7th). Beyond that, none of the chances Haller took in the latter half of the draft really panned out, but yeah: you show me a starting roster of Eli, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Roddy White, Mike Wallace, and Jermichael Finley at the beginning of the 2010 season and I buy that they could win a championship.
Key Transactions
Of course, even a strong roster requires some tweaks and adjustments as the season progresses, and Emailarrhea could hardly be accused of sitting on their laurels. When Finley went down, Haller was forced to scramble a bit, rotating through Visanthe Shiancoe, Todd Heap, and Owen Daniels. But the long-term replacement, Marcedes Lewis (10/13, $4) provided several weeks of fantasy usefulness. Recognizing his depth at running back and quarterback, Haller decided to try to turn two good players into one great one, and eventually consummated a trade with me that sent Matt Forte and Matt Ryan to McClusterfuck in exchange for franchise quarterback Drew Brees. Last year, I traded Vernon Davis to Papkin and ended up feeling like a complete schmuck when Davis blew up for him. This year, I could feel bitter about trading Haller what turned out to be the final piece to his championship puzzle, but I find myself surprisingly satisfied with it. Regardless of Haller's success, I have very little doubt that getting Forte and Ryan was good for my team overall, and I feel kind of proud that a McClusterfucker won the league, even if he had to escape the black hole that is my roster in order to do so. Anyways, the trade opened up a spot on Haller's squad for a backup running back, a spot that was soon filled by Chris Ivory (10/1, $0). Ivory not only lent the team its name (Chris Ivory's Black) for a while, he also provided them with some solid fantasy numbers, including a three-week stretch at the end of the regular season where he put up 55 points. The biggest expenditure of the season was more like a one-week rental, with Haller acquiring Blair White (12/22, $25) for the championship game, in which he ended up riding the pine. I'm sure his cheering from the sidelines was instrumental in the win, though.
Crucial Victories and Crushing Defeats
From the perspective of someone who's just won the league, it's hard to imagine any losses being particularly "crushing." But though he won the NBDBowl, to claim true league domination (and some extra money), Haller would have had to win the regular season crown as well, a feat he missed by just one win. With that in mind, any of his four losses could qualify as a crushing defeat. Naturally, the most crushing would be the one he was closest to winning: I speak, of course, of the two and a half point loss he suffered in Week 3 to none other than yours truly, the McClusterfuck. In that game, Jeremy Maclin (20) and Matt Ryan (20), in his last game for Haller's squad, gave the team strong performances that were backed up by Roddy White (13), and Sebastian Janikowski (12). McClusterfuck had built a 103-point Sunday total thanks to big days by Austin Collie (29) and Drew Brees (25), but Haller found himself only 19 points down with Jermichael Finley and Matt Forte to play on Monday night. Finley (12) did his part, but Forte (4) failed to show up, and one loss and two days later, found himself being shipped out of Emailarrheaville. Haller never looked back.
And now it comes time to tell the tale of the NBDBowl, a game which is undeniably Emailarrhea's most Crucial Victory. Like the Week 3 game, it came down to the last game of the week and was decided by less than three points, but this time with Haller on the other side of the outcome. For the most part, the Sir Lucious Left Fut players seemed to have little awareness that their play was deciding the fate of the NBD championship and year-long bragging rights in what's known as the Cherry Run Corridor. Reggie Wayne, Deion Branch, Thomas Jones, Vincent Jackson: shitters, one and all. But as he was all season, Aaron Rodgers (35) was there to pick up the slack, with some unexpected help from Kellen Winslow (22). That was enough to put Elliott at 88 points with a 43-point lead after the conclusion of the Sunday games. Sounds like a safe lead, right? But as you may remember, this was going down the week that the Minneapolis Minneapodome was imploding*, and not only did Haller have guys going in the Monday Night game, but he also had several players in the unprecedented Tuesday Night game. The Monday Nighters were some big guns, and had the potential to close that gap all by themselves, but while both Roddy White (10) and Drew Brees (14) were decent, neither had the explosive night that would have iced it for Haller. That left it to a trio of Eagles - Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, and the Defense - to win it for Emailarrhea. Neither Maclin nor McCoy would go on to score a touchdown, and the Philly D gave up 24 points in an embarrassing loss to the bottom-dwelling Vikings, but none of that mattered to Haller. With a combined 21 points, they scored just enough to bring Matt his second NBD title in three years and give all of us our second straight nail-biting, down-to-the-last second NBDBowl.
*If you watch that Fox video of the Metrodome explosion, note how Pam Oliver's weave resembles the tattered, billowing remnants of the Metrodome's ruined roof. Do you think they did that on purpose? I hope so.
The Playoff Run
It feels somewhat anti-climactic to go through the details of Weeks 11-15 after narrating the exciting championship, but our champion certainly deserves no less attention than I've given anyone else in these write-ups, so here we go:
As I wrote in the Wild Stallions Review, Week 11 served as a sort of pivot point for the season, with last year's winner handing off the torch by losing to this year's eventual champ. The Stallions put up a decent fight, especially Phil Rivers (25), but with every offensive Emailer scoring in double figures, including 29 from Brees and 20 from McCoy, the flood of points was simply too much to overcome. Emailarrhea scored a dominant victory, 132 - 94.
The next week brought a far more modest showing from Emailarrhea, but thanks to the ineptness of their opponent, Buck Stops Here, it didn't cost them a win. Gone was the dominance of Week 11, with a mediocre day by Brees (17) and unspectacular outings by Rice (13), McCoy (12), and Maclin (11) resulting in a total of 75 points. Fortunately, when you're playing against a team where five players can combine for seven points (as Terrell Owens, Tim Hightower, Anquan Boldin, John Carlson, and Adam Vinatieri did), 75 is plenty.
The last week of the regular season brought a chance to take the regular season crown, but the Emailers were caught napping, lured in by the ease of Week 12's easy win. The Burke City Giants were wide awake, with scoring across the board that was led by their troika of running backs: Arian Foster (23), Ahmad Bradshaw (23) and Jamaal Charles (14). Shady (25) and Brees (20) tried to rally the rest of the 'Rhea, but it was too little, too late as Haller fell 117 - 85 and watched the regular season crown slip away.
A 9-4 record, however, was good enough to earn the Emailers a first round bye, and the week off to rest and scout their opponent clearly paid off. All season long, Colly's team had been posting some ridiculous totals thanks to the explosiveness of his Michael Vick-DeSean Jackson. And while Vick did go off to the tune of 40 points in Week 15, Haller was ready for the onslaught. Other than Jason Witten (20), who put up his biggest day of the year, Emailarrhea was able to limit the rest of Sex with a Pharaoh's scorers, while putting up some big numbers of their own. When all was said and done, Ray Rice (35) had nearly equaled Vick, Brees (22) had counteracted Witten's effectiveness, and the rest of Haller's squad put it all together to coast to a 133 - 93 victory and a berth in the NBDBowl.
What the Future Holds
Two championships in three years is impressive. Three championships in four years is a dynasty. Haller will be chasing that goal next year, but he'll have to do it without most of the engine of this year's winning squad. Brees, White, McCoy, Rice, and Wallace were all either kept this year or drafted too highly to keep, meaning that options are limited. Marshawn Lynch (15th) had one of the most memorable runs in post-season history, but one of the least memorable seasons in fantasy. A more likely free agent running back keeper is Chris Ivory (15th), but assuming Pierre Thomas returns for the Saints, I've got no idea what his situation will be. He could go with Eli Manning (6th), but has anyone ever been excited about keeping Eli? That leaves Jeremy Maclin (5th) as the only "lock" to return from the championship roster. Maclin's success was relatively quiet this year, but he did finish 14th among all wide receivers, and that certainly seems worthy of a 5th-round value, right?
So anyways: Congratulations, Haller. Celebrate now, while you can. Come September, eleven other owners (including a newcomer! exciting!) will be gunning for your crown, all with the foolish belief that some magazine they read or spreadsheet they make or website they visit will give them the keys to victory, when in fact it's mostly just dumb luck.
That is, of course, if there's an NFL season in 2011. If not, well maybe I'll use the fall to do something productive with my life. Anyone got any ideas?
1 comment:
You know, while I'll be the first to admit that my season's success was due in large part to luck you also failed to mention that i may be the most consistent fantasy owner over the last three years with 3rd, 3rd, and 2nd place finishes. I also probably had the most consistent scoring team this past season (can we please get a calculation of standard deviation?), despite the fact that i was only the 6th highest scoring team. But, all in all, another fantastic write-up, Sovic. And, I must say, another fantastically run season.
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