As you may recall from my post-draft post, I'm tracking the performance of all of our auctioned players this season based on Points Per Dollar. Though I'm not ready to publish the individual rankings yet, I did take some time this week, with roughly a third of the fantasy regular season under our belts, to calculate positional rankings. The formula is simple: total number of points contributed by drafted players at a position divided by total number of dollars spent on that position. A couple things to keep in mind:
1) This includes only players purchased during our auctioned draft, not ones that have since been acquired in the Free Agent Auction.
2) This includes only points that were actually contributed as part of the starting line-up, so even if you drafted, say Marques Colston, his 25.8 points this week didn't count towards your WR PPD if you started Lance Moore instead, you stupid fucking idiot.
Anyways, here are the rankings/results:
WR
Bev 3.94
Souts 3.54
Bost 2.81
JDC 2.38
Dekker 2.37
Bardey 2.34
Hambone 2.07
Jong 2.05
Wilson 1.77
Cody 1.72
Casano 1.29
Sovic 1.19
TE
Casano 14.90
Bost 7.40
Bev 5.23
Hambone 4.76
Souts 4.73
Wilson 3.92
JDC 2.33
Cody 2.15
Bardey 1.47
Dekker 1.41
Jong 0.87
Sovic 0.73
RB
Souts 2.44
Hambone 1.81
Bardey 1.73
Cody 1.64
Bost 1.52
Sovic 1.49
Casano 1.43
Wilson 1.29
Dekker 1.10
JDC 1.10
Jong 1.03
Bev 0.56
QB
Jong 31.25
Bev 17.6
Wilson 8.66
Dekker 8.12
Casano 4.75
Sovic 3.25
JDC 2.66
Bardey 2.10
Bost 1.43
Hambone 1.32
Cody 1.05
Souts 0.84
K
Bardey 47.00
Wilson 41.00
Casano 32.00
Souts 31.00
Bost 30.00
JDC 27.00
Dekker 25.00
Hambone 21.00
Cody 18.00
Sovic 17.50
Bev 7.00
Jong 5.00
Def
JDC 65.00
Bardey 40.00
Dekker 36.00
Bost 35.00
Casano 26.00
Hambone 14.00
Souts 12.33
Jong 12.00
Cody 11.50
Wilson 10.00
Bev 9.00
Sovic 3.00
Basically, the kicker and defense ratings just answer the questions Did you spend a dollar on your kicker/defense? and Have you used the same kicker/defense for all four weeks? Those rankings are pretty insignificant, right?
...and yet....
My hope in doing this was to identify which positional values would yield the most success. I would love to be able to draw some correlation between winning and Souts' outlying value at Running Back, or Jong's huge PPD number at Quarterback, or Bev's presence among the top three at Wide Receiver, Tight End, and Quarterback. But those three guys? They're in the bottom half of our league rankings. The guys who are on top of the league right now are Dekker (4 wins, 2nd in scoring); Wilson (3 wins, 1st in scoring); and Bardey (3 wins, 3rd in scoring). The common thread: Bardey and Wilson are first and second in Kicker PPD, and Bardey and Dekker are second and third in Defense PPD. Could it be that with all of us reading the same pre-season rankings and fantasy insiders, that we're essentially fielding the same offensive team, with only the "extra" positions providing differentiation? Or that the key to fantasy success is finding value at the supposedly value-less positions? I leave it to you geniuses to figure it out. I'll probably just stick to writing these weekly reviews. And with that, I give you Week 4:
Fire Al Groh (136) over Colonel Red Beard (97)
It isn't so much that the Redbeards didn't know
what hit them this week, it was that they didn't
know where the hits were coming from. The
Firemen were attacking on all sides in all ways,
with a nearly perfect distribution of offensive
plays that kept Bev's hapless Falcons defense
(4) guessing - and guessing wrongly - all game
long. Michael Vick (19) overcome his problems of
coughing the ball up to the other team and kept
it moving to his own receivers, spreading it
around to Torrey Smith (19), Rob Gronkowski (17)
and Larry Fitzgerald (16). With the Colonel's
army struggling to rein in the passing game, the
gaps were open for Bardey's 1-2 punch of Trent
Richardson (18) and Alfred Morris (17). Trying
to play catch-up, Philip Rivers (14) and Victor
Cruz (21) managed to do some damage, but LeSean
McCoy's (16) roll ended up being minimized, and
the other receivers couldn't really get anything
going. With drive after drive stalling out in
the red zone, Matt Bryant (14) got a lot of
work, but that's never the equation for success
against a high-powered offense.
Tumblin' Dice (126) over Quarterback Camp (119)
Sometimes too much talent on a roster can be a
bad thing. With so much attention paid to the
ongoing quarterback controversy and the money
spent on the offensive side of the ball, there
is reportedly a growing schism developing in the
Campers' locker room. That can only be
exacerbated by this week's result, where the
49ers defense (24) actually led the team in
scoring, only to see their highly-paid
counterparts unable to keep up with the Tumblin'
Dice. To be fair, the Dice had a huge week, with
Robert Griffin III (23) continuing to impress in
his rookie season, taking advantage of the
explosiveness of fellow youngster AJ Green (21)
and reliability of the experienced Jason Witten
(24). Not to be outdone by the Niners, the
Texans D (23) did some scoring of their own,
ensuring the Dice their third straight win and
the title of highest-scoring team in the league.
Team Pinhead (126) over
HollyBoneWoodJerMajestyD'Brichashaw (121)
The Pinhead "training" staff is famous for the
way they take care of their players, but when
owner Brian Bost got a little too aggressive
during kicker Nate Kaeding's pre-game rub-and-tug, it led to the team taking the field without
their kicker and his injured groin. Somehow,
though, the knowledge that there would be no
field goals or punts this day led to success for
the Pinheads. Continually going for it on fourth
down, Drew Brees (30) made many a drive-saving
pass to favored receiver Roddy White (33) and
left HollyBone's Packers defense (2) gasping for
breath. Though Tom Brady (32) showed classic
form, he could never quite do in three downs
what Brees was doing in four. Marshawn Lynch
(24) had a strong day on the ground, but lacked
the inspiration of a Pinhead team playing for
their fallen doofus.
Dobis (P)PR (109) over Joe's Fightin' Blue Hens
(103)
Joltin' Joe (23) finally made his triumphant
return to his namesake's starting line-up this
week, but he was apparently so excited about
flexing the old arm muscles and airing it out to
Dwayne Bowe (20) that he forgot about the rest
of his offense, none of whom could manage double
figures. Matching the character of their own
quarterback (Eli Manning, 18) and owner (Sovic,
32), Dobis took a much more even-keeled
approach. Pounding it on the ground with Stevan
Ridley (23) and Cedric Benson (13), the PR squad
only needed average contributions from Brandon
Lloyd (13) and Lance Moore (10) to stay ahead.
Jesse's Bears defense (23) made a late push, but
it wasn't enough to win the Battle of B1E.
Pterodactyl Attack (101) over Big Blue (98)
In a week of tight games (five of six match-ups
were decided by 10 points or less), this one was
the tightest. The Pterodactyls looked strong in
the early going, with Arian Foster (16)
providing nearly exactly the 100 yards and
touchdown I credited him with last week. With
the Big Blue defense (2) focused on keeping
Julio Jones (4) at bay, Matt Ryan (25) was able
to connect with Eric Decker (17) and Mike
Williams (14). Across the field, aging wonders
Michael Turner (25) and Peyton Manning (25) did
a lot to silence their nay-sayers, and Vincent
Jackson (19) has clearly developed a strong
rapport with Manning. But late attempts to get
Martellus Bennet (1) and Jeremy Maclin (1)
involved in the game fizzled out, and Big Blue
was left just short of their third victory,
giving a fourth straight to the undefeated
'Dactyls.
Dagobah System Silent Partner (94) over It's So
Cold in the D (90)
Smarting over his undressing in last week's
Reviews, Cody came into this match-up with
something to prove. But there was only one team
in the league he could prove it against, and
that was the equally inept It's So Cold in the
D. The Dagobahan most in need of redemption was
probably quarterback Aaron Rodgers (28), who
finally produced the kind of game Cody expected
when he paid $67 for him a month ago. Rodgers
found success by leaning on Jordy Nelson (19)
and Dez Bryant (17). To do so, the Dagobahans
were forced to ignore the running game, but
luckily that wasn't much of a factor against a
So Cold squad whose only bright spots were
Brandon Marshall (23) and rookie kicker
sensation Greg Zuerlein (18). Jong and Bill's
team may not be scaring anybody at this point,
but Zuerlein must have the rest of the league's
doofs quaking in their boots.
That does it for Week 4. If any of you guys can
make any sense of all that PPD analysis I did
and the thousands of hours of data entry that
went into it in the Comments, I'd love to see
it.
10.02.2012
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2 comments:
Seems like Sovic's magic formula punishes you for paying top dollar for stud players ... I'd rather have Arian Foster for 70 and an average of 19.2 a week than say Cedric Benson who gets 10 a week and went for something like 18 bucks in the draft. Maybe measuring how much better a guy is than the average starter? Then again I'm not running any numbers so I won't continue to criticize ...
Dekker, your criticism is perfectly valid and welcome, and your point is the exact reason that I calculated PPD by position rather than individually. Because obviously we'd all rather have an Arian Foster than a Cedric Benson, but really what you end up with on your roster is an Arian Foster AND a Cedric Benson AND a Donald Brown, etc. And there's a finite amount of money to spend on those guys on the draft, so my presumption was that getting value on guys, especially guys like the Bensons of the league, would result in success. But as the numbers show, maybe you're right. Maybe all that really matters is hitching yourself to a superstar, whose PPD will almost always end up lower than a mid-teir guy who was a third of the cost. If that's the conclusion we come to, though, then next year should see us bidding those guys up even higher than we did this year. It'll be interesting to see what the point of diminishing returns is on those top investments. If $70 wasn't too much for Foster this year, how much is too much?
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