BIFL - Week 10 Review

Normally, I spend an entire weeknight writing one of these weekly reviews. Sure, I'll watch PTI, eat dinner, watch NBA hoops, play Rock Band, and practice my piano while I'm writing it, but it's still like a 5 hour process. This week, however, I've run out of weeknights and I'm planning on leaving the house in about an hour to try to meet up with Billy and Danny Lee for drinks before we spend the rest of the weekend at Chip Hamner wedding festivities, so time is very short. I'm gonna try to just bang it out. If there are typos, grammatical errors, or sentences that simply don't make sense, bear with me.

So, we're closing in on the playoffs, with only three weeks to go. And since we haven't changed the schedule one bit from last year, that means everybody's got at least one intradivisional match-up and one geographical rivalry game on their plate. Some of those geographies have changed since last year so that the match-ups don't make sense anymore, but the point is the next three weeks are crucially important. I'm pretty awful at calculating "If X then Y but not Z" type situations (though I do know that Coke Zero is more like Coke than it is like Diet Coke and also more like Coke than Diet Coke is -- graph it) so I'm not gonna be able to tell you exactly who needs to win which games and what all the permutations of possible playoff teams are. Maybe our mathier commish can handle that one. What I can do is add up numbers, and then divide them, so that's what I did. I took the results from the last five weeks and calculated each team's average points per game. Then I compared the ppg's of the teams that play each other over the next three weeks, and determined the probable result of those games.
Some of my findings were shocking: Soutendijk, for example, has averaged 98.4 ppg over the past 5 weeks, 4th highest in the league. I, on the other hand, have averaged 90.7 ppg (7th) and yet I've won 4 games in a row over teams with otherwise excellent records. If our scoring trends hold, though, Soutendijk can expect to win all three of his final games, and I can expect to lose all three. This will put him, incredibly, into the playoffs, and leave me out. God I hope the numbers lie. Here's what my statistical projections do for the rest of you.
FUBAR averages 91.5ppg to go 1-2 in his final three games.

Sky Vault Centurions average 100.9ppg to go 3-0 in their final three.
Egon Spengler averages 90.7ppg to go 0-3.
Cholish Chachfaces average 86.6 to go 1-2.
Santonio Holmes averages 90.9 to go 2-1.
Alligator Fuckhouse averages 98.4 to go 3-0.
Manatee Eaters average 76.7 to go 0-3.
Jeff Stryker is a total faggot averages 114.6 to go 3-0.
Iron Chef of Pounding Poon averages 82.7 to go 1-2.
Chip Lohmiller averages 108.5 to go 3-0.
Pet Monkey averages 88.0 to go 1-2.
Juse and the Arrrrrghonauts average 71.5 to go 0-3.

I have no doubt that many, if not most of those projections will be proven wrong, but that's what would happen if everybody performed exactly as they have for the past five weeks. If that were to happen, your playoff teams would be:

Jeff Stryker, 9-4
Sky Vault Centurions, 9-4
Chip Lohmiller, 8-5
FUBAR, 7-5-1
Manatee Eaters, 7-6
Alligator Fuckhouse, 7-6

And the rest of us will be rocking it out in the consolation bracket. I have no doubt that at least one of the teams mentioned there will not make it, and one of the teams not mentioned will, but Dick, Bardey, Chalski, Meyers and I are all, statistically speaking, fighting uphill battles to make it into the playoffs. Justin is not so much fighting an uphill battle as he is attempting to scale a sheer cliff, carrying a sack of paperweights, with only a pair of dull plastic forks.
Before we get too caught up in what's to come, though, let's take a look back at what has been.

Week 10:
Juse and the Arrrrrghonauts 78.5, Jeff Stryker is not really gay 113
See? Statistics would have predicted that Will would beat Justin, and he did! Then again, a blind, deaf alien from the planet Xirkon probably could have predicted this outcome. Kurt Warner (27) and Adrian Peterson (30) had their customary big days, scoring more than 50% of Stryker's points for the week. I still wouldn't trust Adrian Peterson to get me into and through the playoffs healthy, but he has gotten through Week 10 and this week put up his sixth and bet-deciding 15+ point game. I now owe Will 20 bucks and a swift kick in the nuts. Guess which one's getting delivered first? As for Juse, he actually got some decent outings from Brandon Marshall (14) and Tony Gonzalez (25), but his snake-bitten season continues with yet another running back going down. This time it was Jamaal Charles, who was hobbled by ankle trouble, gaining only 8 yards on 3 carries. That made him two points better, however, than Jake Delhomme, who was absolutely atrocious last week, against the Raiders, no less.

Iron Chef of Pounding Poon 82.5, Santonio's Blunts 104.5
The key to a good blunt is the distribution, and Bardey has clearly learned that from his team's namesake as evidenced by the balance of his attack this week. Five Blunts scored in double figures this week, including Donovan McNabb (20), Matt Forte (16), Marques Colston (14), Ryan Grant (13), and Ray Lewis with an impressive 10 defensive points without a pick-six. Holmes himself (2 pts) apparently spent the whole game asking Mike Tomlin if he thought it was "weird, when you really think about it, how we dress ourselves up in these ridiculous costumes every week and run around this field chasing after a pig skin when there's so much suffering and destruction going on in the world. Man." Also I think Steve Smith (0) actually rode to the game with Santonio, which is weird in itself because one was playing in Pittsburgh and the other was in Oakland. Some trippy shit.

Egon Spengler 91.5, FUBAR 91
Speaking of trippy shit, the ending of this game was ridiculous. Going into Monday night, I was trailing Spencer by a decent amount and had Isaac Bruce and Anquan Boldin going against his Frank Gore. With Boldin (22) having another huge night and Gore getting some decent yardage but no TD's, I was closing in all night. But coming down to San Fran's final drive, I was still down 94-91.5 with only Isaac Bruce able to catch me up. I was hoping they might toss it to him in the end zone, but from the 3-yard line, the dynamic duo of Singletary and Martz called two straight run plays, first with Gore, then with Michael Robinson. Neither got in the end zone, and the game was over. I conceded victory. But then an amazing thing happened: 3 points just disappeared from Spence's score. As it turns out, that unsuccessful touchdown run by Frank Gore had actually lost a yard, and that yard brought him from 100 on the night to 99. That means a yardage score of 9, rather than 10, and the loss of the 2-point 100+ bonus. 1 yard and 3 points later, I was the victor. Spencer ended the night by declaring that he was gonna go slit his wrists. I hope that's not true, if only because I need him to beat up on Sky Vault and Holmes the next couple weeks to help my playoff chances. You've got so much to live for, Spence! Think of the Nooch!!!

Sky Vault Centurions 121, Cholish Chachfaces 82

You know what? I gotta go. So I'm gonna post for now, and then try to come back and add to this when I get home drunk tonight. Should be interesting.

So I'm back, and not nearly as drunk as could have been expected. You know who's drunk, though? Mam Siotke. Spent the latter part of this evening holding him up and watching his girlfriend scold him. Good times. Anyways...
The Centurions are strong to quite strong, to really incredibly fucking strong. How strong are they? Two of Dre's boys went blank and he still had the high score of the week. That's what happens I guess when three guys combine for 80 points (Cutler 35, Jacobs 24, Mewelde 21). To me, Sky Vault looks like the dominant team heading into the home stretch. Keep in mind that the team leader, Clinton Portis, didn't play this week (and it looks like won't play again next week) but should be healthy in time for the playoffs. And can you ask for more dependable receivers in terms of getting you at least 9-10 pts a week than Larry Fitzgerald and Hines Ward? Ok, ok. I'll get off the good Doctor's jock now. Let's focus on Chalski's jock instead, which like the actual Cholach's jock in college, was pretty much completely devoid of scoring this week. 21 out of Reggie Waye is certainly nice, as is the customary 18 by Philip Rivers, but most of the rest of this team falls under the label of 2008 disappointment.

Manatee Eaters 59.5, Chip Lohmiller 113
Here's what I said in my preview last week: "Wow. Dekker is starting Joe Flacco this week. Normally that'd be enough for me to declare Chuck the winner." So, I'm dumb. My apologies to Dekker, Joe, and the entire Flacco family. Apparently the guy's a stud, I just didn't recognize what a football factory the fucking Delaware Fightin' Blue Hen program was. Joe the Passer went for 21 points, which was good for only the 3rd-highest scorer on the Lohmiller roster behind Maurice Jones-Drew (27) and Eddie Royal (24). And what can I say about Chuck's team that I haven't already said? They are jokers. Pretenders. Posers. Their 7-3, West-leading record disgusts me, and what disgusts me even more is that they'll probably slide into the playoffs on the strength of their flukey early-season dominance, while my team is still fighting for our playoff lives. Having trouble breaking that elusive 65-point barrier, Chuckles? Well, that's probably just a one-week aberration, right? Oh wait, it's happened three of the past four weeks. I might feel bad about all this McNut-hating if I wasn't such a Minnesota Bearcats supporter in years past. But this season, it just isn't deserved.

Pet Monkey 72, Alligator Fuckhouse 117
Speaking of hating on BIFL teams, I've given Souts' squad a lot of shit this year here on Lassard.com, or whatever the fuck it's called*, but it's time for me to eat my words. For the past month or so, this has been a fuckhouse on fire, and this rout of team rhinoplasty was no exception (p.s. saw the new schnozz tonight, and Billy's hardly recognizable. have you guys seen Dirty Dancing's Jennifer Grey since she got her shit done? it's like that. whole new person.) Leading the Fuckhouse was wahoo-wah Thomas Jones (34), who has really been coming on strong lately in the Jets' high-powered offense. Normally a good quarterback can open things up for a running back, but I actually think the opposite has happened with Brett Favre. He's made so many dumbass fucktard throws this season that I think teams just sit back in pass coverage assuming that they'll grab a few easy interceptions, and don't even think about the holes that D'Brick, Mangold et al are creating for the running game. Kellen Winslow (23) and Matt Ryan (19) also made solid contributions for AF this week, whereas nothing for Pet Monkey was particularly solid other than the fact that he featured an IDP named Dewayne. Love that 'e' in there, letting you know "this guy's name is pronounced the way black people pronounce it."

And... there goes the thumping that means the girl in the room above me is getting boffed. That's gonna do it for me [retrieves lotion from under bed].

*ok, so i'm a little drunk